Speech by The Secretary General of the League of Arab States on Peace & Security in Iraq

Speech by H.E Dr. Nabil Elaraby, The Secretary General of the League of Arab States at the “International Conference on Peace and Security in Iraq”. 

Delivered in Paris, France on September 15, 2014.

Excellency, Mr. Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Republic of France Excellency, Mr. Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Minster of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Iraq Excellencies the Ministers, Ladies and Gentlemen, At the beginning, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude and appreciation to H.E. President Francois Hollande, President of the Republic of France and H.E. President Fouad Massoum, President of the Republic of Iraq for their initiative to convene this important conference and for their joint sponsorship of the conference’s proceedings which we expect that would contribute and effectively mobilize regional and international support for the new Iraqi government, and help it to achieve security, stability and to maintain the national unity of the Iraqi people with all their components and multi-cultural, social fabric. This Iraqi national unity represents the guarantee and the essential foundation for enhancement of the Iraqi national unity government led by H.E President Haidar Al-Abbadi. I also take this opportunity to congratulate Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari who participates in this conference today, stressing the need to provide every support for the new Iraqi government and to help it to carry out its responsibilities in maintaining peace and security in Iraq and to face the surrounding hazards and challenges, in particular, the fateful confrontation that Iraq faces, in partnership with the Arab brothers and the international community, against ISIS terrorist group and its extended branches in the region, and which has no relation with the true religion of Islam. In this context, I would like to emphasize the following points:

First: The importance of concerted efforts to develop joint action plans and programs that would help implement all the provisions of the Security Council Resolution No. 2170 (2014) into effect.

Second: The Arab League Ministerial Council issued an important resolution on 7/9/2014 expressing unanimous commitment of the Arab States to undertake practical and comprehensive political, security, judicial, intellectual and cultural measures to face the hazards of terrorism in all its forms. In this regard, the Council stressed the disposition to full cooperation with various initiatives and international efforts to combat terrorism and eradicate this phenomenon and its causes. Here, I express full support for the initiative of the Kingdom of Bahrain on the fight against terrorism funding sources.

Third: the phenomenon of terrorism and extremism requires good preparation for its comprehensive confrontation everywhere regardless of the name under which it materializes. In addition, terrorism should not be associated with any religion, nationality, race or civilization, together with the need to enhance the culture of interfaith and intercultural dialogue. In this context, it is necessary to take into consideration the state of paralysis or stagnation that has stricken efforts to achieve peace and security in the region, first and foremost ending the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, in addition to the inability of the international community and the Security Council to deal with other volatile crises in Syria, Yemen, Libya Somalia, which all feed the waves of extremism and terrorism.

Fourth: The need to respond to the challenges posed by the conditions and requirements for inclusive confrontation with terrorism, which should not be confined to security and military aspects, but also include means to establish the concepts of freedom, justice, citizenship and equality of rights and duties and good governance as concepts that constitute the foundations of the social charter and coexistence and public peace among the diverse components of the Arab communities rich with cultural plurality, without exclusion or discrimination.

Fifth: I would like to be explicit when I describe the heinous crimes committed against Christians, Yezidis, Turkmen, Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis and others, because they are not crimes against ethnic or religious minorities in the structure of Arab societies and their history, but these crimes are rather committed against all humanity and also against basic social, and original components in the history of the Arab region and the present and future of its people.

Sixth: Finally, emphasis should also be made on the need to adhere to full respect of Iraq’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, political stability and national unity, and to reject any interference in its internal affairs, and with this, I end my speech.

Thank you Mr. President.

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#SocialGoodSummit Day 2 Summary: PITA POINTS #2030Now // نقاط على “PITAPOINTS” السنوي الخامس اجتماعية جيدة قمة

Arabic Translation

الانتهاء من القمة السنوية الخامسة اجتماعية جيدة قمته لمدة يومين في نيويورك، و ، حسنا، كنا سعداء
 أن ثلاثة على الأقل من المتحدثين جاء من الشرق الأوسط : انوشه انصاري ، بسام عرامين ، و أحمد هنداوي .
شملت 141 مشاركا بلد القمة الاجتماعية جيدة " meetups " أو الاجتماعات الافتراضية في لبنان ومصر
 والمغرب وتونس وباكستان ، والمملكة العربية السعودية.
إن شاء الله ، وهذا سوف تتوسع لتشمل مصر والأردن لأننا نعرف أنهم يمثلون عددا كبيرا من المشاركين
 من المجتمع المدني متابعة المشاريع الاجتماعية أو غيرها من أشكال فعل الخير الاجتماعي.
 " PITAPOLICY " يشير بحماس ما يلي " نقاط PITA "

(1)

على الرغم من أن وباء إيبولا ليس بعد مشكلة في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا ، انها نقطة انطلاق
 جيدة في مناقشة الإغاثة الإنسانية. وبالنظر إلى أن منطقة الشرق الأوسط أنتجت أكبر عدد من اللاجئين من
 الصراع ، و هاجس قضايا الصراع تولي جدول الأعمال بدلا من الأسباب الأخرى لل أزمات اللاجئين.
وهنا بعض التقديرات من المفوضية العليا للاجئين :
 السوريون - 3،000،000
 الأفغان -16,836 
والعراقيين - حوالي - 207,000
 والفلسطينيين - أكثر من 7،100،000 .
 المساعدات الإنسانية ، بالإضافة إلى الإغاثة من الكوارث الطبيعية، و يغذي النقاش أكبر من كيفية
 تقليل تأثير مرور الوقت. قد يبدو غير منطقي لمناقشة الوقاية من الكوارث الطبيعية عندما لا يمكن الوقاية
 منها. ولكن، يمكن للحكومات على المستوى المحلي تنفيذ التحسينات على البنية التحتية للتخفيف من الآثار
 السلبية عند الزلازل والجفاف ، و النزوات من سقوط على طبيعة البشر. الوقاية قد لا يكون المفتاح لوقف
 الكوارث الطبيعية ، ولكن الوقاية هي مفتاح الانتعاش المستدام.
زار رؤساء المفوضية وبرنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي اللاجئين السوريين والمشاريع المشتركة في وادي البقاع ،
 لبنان. وقال المفوض السامي أنطونيو غوتيريس أن أزمة سوريا قد تصبح أسوأ مأساة إنسانية في عصرنا.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/BjTet5gbQN0?list=PL587DEB510E8CB629" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> 
(2)
التكنولوجيا لا يزال يبقى موضوعا ساخنا في "قمة اجتماعية جيدة " . ومع ذلك ، لاحظنا أن المزيد من المناقشات
 تبرز ( حلول تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات ) تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات و أي تطبيق يمكن تحميلها
 لمعالجة عدم المساواة بين الجنسين وخلق فرص العمل ، أو تغير المناخ - لا يهم كيف مذهلة . فهي مجرد أدوات ،
 والتي تحتاج إلى أن تكون مرتبطة إلى حلول الأجهزة - حرفيا و مجازيا.

(3)
الرئيس التنفيذي ل شركة ديل المشتركة رأيه بأن شمال أفريقيا فرصة التوسع للشركات متعددة الجنسيات .
 عظيم. ولكن ما هي المعايير. نسأل هذا لأنه ذكر بقوة أن ، " نحن مصممون على أن المغرب كان بيئة أفضل
 من تونس" عند شرح قرار شركة ديل مؤخرا للتوسع في المغرب العربي ولكن اختيار المغرب بدلا من تونس.
(4)
وكانت الحملة الإعلامية على الانترنت  "HeforShe#" موضوع مركزي آخر في القمة .
 شعرنا أن هناك تعميمات واسعة جعلت ذلك لا تلتقط بالضرورة الشرق الأوسط و شمال أفريقيا روايات النساء .
 هنا هو مصدر بديل للحصول على مزيد المحادثة.

 

ملاحظة هذه الأرقام !

 

مقابل كل دولار واحد ينفق على الوقاية من الكوارث الطبيعية هو سبعة دولارات المحفوظة في تأثير الكوارث الطبيعية.

~ تحسب مسؤولين من برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي في واحد من اجتماعات المائدة المستديرة مدون . بالطبع ،
 هذا لا يفسر تماما الأرقام الباهظة للاجئين في سوريا والعراق و فلسطين. ومع ذلك، فإن الحجة الاقتصادية
 للحكومات الشرق الأوسط ليكون أكثر استعدادا في بنيتها التحتية يجدر النظر في حالة الكوارث الطبيعية.
 ثلاثة أمثلة مؤثرة تتبادر إلى الذهن : 1) الزلزال اغسطس فى الجزائر ، 2) زلزال عام 2005 في مدينة بام ،
 إيران ، و 3 ) تركيا.


تقوم النساء ستين في المئة من العمل، و خمسين في المائة من الأغذية ، وعشرة في المئة من الدخل ،
 امتلاك واحد في المئة من الأراضي.


~ علق السفير للنوايا الحسنة برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي ، كوني بريتون . كنا نحب أن الحصول على مصدر
 هذه الأرقام المذكورة . قبل عامين ، سمعنا من النائب السابق في الأردن أن المرأة تملك ما بين 5 ٪ إلى 10 ٪
 من الأراضي . في غضون ذلك، تستمر المحادثة على الإنترنت - أو تبادل البيانات الخاصة بك - في "EndPoverty#".
ربع عدد الشعب في لبنان هم لاجئون السوري .
~
الأمم المتحدة السامي لشؤون اللاجئين و المفوض ، أنطونيو جوتيريس
يعرض خلال لوحة : " 50 مليون شخص بلا مأوى "

 

[ملاحظة : استمتعنا بعرض العالمية فورية لل من تونس وباكستان - بعد آسف أننا غاب المقرر قمة الاختيار في المغرب. ]
في غضون ذلك، سوف نستمر في السؤال ، نسأل، وتنفيذ كل ما يعني اجتماعية جيدة لك. ونأمل أن تواصل دفع
 المجتمعات إلى الانخراط في الصالح الاجتماعي وراء الخطاب .

English Translation

The 5th Annual Social Good Summit completed its two-day summit in New York, and, well, we were happy that at least three speakers came from the Middle East:  Anousheh Ansari, Bassam Aramin, and Ahmad Alhandawi.  The Social Good Summit’s 141 country participants included meetups in Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.  Hopefully, this will expand to include Egypt and Jordan because we know they represent a significant number of civil society participants pursuing social entrepreneurship or other forms of doing social good.  PITAPOLICY passionately points out the following PITA POINTS!

  • Although the Ebola epidemic is not yet an issue in the MENA region, it’s a good starting point in discussing humanitarian relief.  Given that the MENA region has produced the largest number of refugees from conflict, the obsession with conflict issues take over the agenda rather than the other causes of refugee crises.   (Here are some estimates from the UNHCR: Syrians - 3 million; Afghanis -16,836, Iraqis – about 207,000; and Palestinians – +7.1 million), humanitarian assistance, in addition to natural disaster relief, feeds into the larger discussion of how to lessen the impact over time.  It may seem counter-intuitive to discuss prevention when natural disasters are unpreventable.  BUT, governments at the local level can implement improvements to infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects when earthquakes, droughts, and freaks of nature fall upon humans.  Prevention may not be the key to stemming natural disasters, but prevention is the key to sustainable recovery.
  • Technology continues to remain a hot topic within the Social Good Summit.  However, we have noticed that more discussions highlight the ICT (information communication technology solutions) and no application can be downloaded to address gender inequality, job creation, or climate change — not matter how amazing.  They are simply tools, which need to be linked back to hardware solutions — both literally and metaphorically.
  • CEO of Dell company shared his view that North Africa is an expansion opportunity for multi-national corporations.  Great.  But what is the criteria.  We ask this because he strongly stated that, “We determined that had a better environment than ” when explaining Dell’s recent decision to expand into the Maghreb but selected Morocco rather than Tunisia.
  • The #HeforShe advocacy campaign was another central theme in the summit.  We felt that there were broad generalizations made that do not necessarily capture the MENA women narratives.  Here is an alternative source for further conversation.
  • Antonio, Guterres, the UN High Commissioner of acknowledged the biggest challenge his office faces in the panel “50 Million People Without a Home” sponsored by Mashable, the UN Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and 92 Y Street.

We no longer have the resources to clean up messes with escalation of suffering. There’s no way.~ Anotnio Guterres

 

Note These Numbers!

For every $1 spent on natural disaster prevention is $7 saved in natural disaster impact.

~calculated officials from the United Nations Development Programme at one of the blogger roundtables.  Of course, this does not completely explain the exorbitant numbers of refugees in Syria, Iraq and Palestine.  However, the economic argument for MENA governments to be more prepared in its infrastructure is worth considering in the event of natural disasters.  Three poignant examples come to mind: 1)  the August earthquake in Algeria, 2) the 2005 earthquake in Bam, Iran, and 3) Turkey’s

Women are doing 60% of work, 50% of food, 10% of income, owning 1% of land.

~commented UNDP Goodwill Ambassador, Connie Britton.  We would love to get the source of these quoted figures.  Two years ago, we heard from a former MP in Jordan that women owned between 5% to 10% of the land.  In the meantime, continue the conversation online — or share your data —  at #EndPoverty.

[Note: We enjoyed viewing the Global Check-In from Tunisia and Pakistan--yet sorry that we missed Morocco's scheduled summit check-in.]

In the meantime, we will continue to question, ask, and implement whatever social good means to you. We hope you will continue pushing your communities to engage in social good beyond the rhetoric.

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With #DeepProblems, how does #EverybodyProfits // مع مشاكل عميقة : كيف “الربح للجميع ” ؟

?  عن الشخص المناسب ، وهناك دائما تمويل المستثمرين. s.
Social Good Summit - قمة اجتماعية جيدة

Social Good Summit – قمة اجتماعية جيدة

  
سؤال حول الأمن مقابل " الخير الاجتماعي" :
اليوم هو اليوم الثاني من القمة الاجتماعية جيد ... و خاض قيوم ، مؤسس PITAPOLICY ، ضد ساعتين من حركة
 المرور لعبور خمسة أميال والتوصل إلى الندوة قبل القمة للمدونين . لهذا اليوم ، مؤسسة الأمم المتحدة
 و غيره من المنظمين طلبت منا التركيز على هذه الموضوعات :

 1) " مشاكل عميقة " 2) العمل من أجل المناخ ، و 3) تمويل أصحاب المشاريع الاجتماعية .

ماذا يعني فلر ؟ ويقول: "أنت تريد المنتجات التي تبدو جيدة ويجعل الناس يشعرون بالارتياح " .
 وتنتج شركته اللوازم المدرسية ممتعة وجذابة للأطفال بينما إشراكهم في القضية.
على وجه التحديد ، Yoobi شراكة مع الأطفال في حاجة المؤسسة ل تحديد ما يقرب من 30،000 الفصول الدراسية الولايات المتحدة و التبرع اللوازم المدرسية لهم للتعلم متعة .
له نموذج الأعمال هو نجاح لأنه يتماشى مع شراكة بين القطاعين العام والخاص. هذا أمر عظيم ! وذكر أن " للشخص المناسب ، وهناك دائما التمويل. " لكن ، ماذا لو كنت الشخص الخطأ ؟ أو أكثر لهذه النقطة : ما إذا كنت
مجموعة الصغيرة التي لا تستطيع الوصول إلى القروض المصرفية، "عاصمة البذور" ، غير الربحية الكبيرة ولا نجاحات ل منح التمويل الحكومي لبناء المشاريع الاجتماعية ؟

تقنية المعلومات قطاع الاتصالات : هل تفوق اجتماعية جيدة القلق المجتمع؟
تكنولوجيا المعلومات لديها نسبة من الصفر البطالة.
وقال نائب و زير خارجية الولايات المتحدة للاتصالات الدولية أن اقتصاد الإنترنت يتزايد بين 15 ٪ إلى 20 ٪ في البلدان النامية كل عام.

إذا تكنولوجيا كبيرة، و تنتج تكنولوجيا المعلومات و العديد من الفوائد الاجتماعية لذلك يجب أن نسأل:
كيف شركات التكنولوجيا تضمن أن منتجاتها لا تستغل من قبل الحكومات؟
 

English Quick Summary: Information Technology Communication Sector: Does Social Good Outweigh the Society Worry? Internet economy is growing between 15 to 20% in developing countries each year.  , 
 But, how do #technology companies ensure that their products are not exploited by governments as #EverybodyProfits? ?

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The World Is Resetting Its To-Do List #2030Now // العالم هو إعادة لها قائمة المهام

Agenda-Setting in Session

“The world is resetting its “To-Do” list”, said the Spokesperson from the United Nations Foundation, who is one of the sponsors for the Social Good Summit.  So PITAPOLICY participated in a quick tutorial on which issues civil society believe their government representatives NEED to consider for global harmony — not just global security.

أجندة وضع في الدورة
وقال المتحدث باسم و من مؤسسة الأمم المتحدة، الذي هو واحد من الرعاة ل مؤتمر القمة الاجتماعية الجيدة " إن العالم في..
لذلك شارك في PITAPOLICY تعليمي سريع على المجتمع المدني الذي يصدر يعتقد بحاجة ل ممثلي حكوماتهم للنظر في الانسجام العالمي - الأمن ليس فقط العالمي.
إعادة تعيين " " قائمة " المهام.

 

As we mentioned last week, New York City is hosting the annual United Nations’ General Assembly and the Social Good Summit is running in parallel to refine the UN agenda.  Items MUST include climate change, access to clean energy, and reassessing the Millennium Development Goals.  A key partner of the summit, the 92 Y Street organization, has graciously offered to serve as the hub for the 5th Annual gathering.  As you see below, 92 Y thrives in creatively sharing its mission with others.

كما ذكرنا في الأسبوع الماضي ، مدينة نيويورك تستضيف الجمعية العامة السنوية للامم المتحدة و يشغل قمة اجتماعية جيدة بالتوازي مع تحسين 
جدول أعمال الأمم المتحد .
يجب أن تشمل البنود تغير المناخ ، والوصول إلى الطاقة النظيفة ، وإعادة تقييم الأهداف الإنمائية للألفية.
شريك رئيسي للقمة ، فإن " 92 Y شارع " منظمة ، عرضت تكرمت لتكون بمثابة مركزا ل تجمع السنوي الخامس .
كما ترون أدناه، " شارع 92 Y " يزدهر في تقاسم خلاق مهمته مع الآخرين.

 

Here were some key takeaways from the tutorial that gear towards global harmony:
كان هنا بعض الوجبات السريعة الرئيسية من البرنامج التعليمي الذي العتاد نحو الوئام العالمي :
  • Profit: “Sustainability is where the business opportunities are,” stated Fokko Wientjes.  Many forums talk about the importance of corporate social responsibility, but any sized business can seize the opportunity to consider the triple bottom-line: people, profit, and the planet.  Addressing all three points is the key to sustainability and to financing the solutions.
  • الفائدة:
    الاستدامة حيث الفرص التجارية هي "، وذكر Fokko Wientjes .
    العديد من المنتديات تتحدث عن أهمية المسؤولية الاجتماعية للشركات ، ولكن أي عمل الحجم يمكن اغتنام الفرصة للنظر في الثلاثي أسفل خط :
  • الناس ، والربح ، والكوكب.
    معالجة جميع النقاط الثلاث هو مفتاح الاستدامة و تمويل الحلول.
  • People: “End preventable child death” by innovating these five interventions in the following order said Leith Greeslade, who is the UN Special Envoy for Financing the Health Millennium Development Goals.  These are 1) increase access to contraception, 2) toilets, 3) fortified foods, 4) breast pumps to facilitate breast-feeding; and 5) infant incubators.  The global health agenda must prioritize these five health interventions, in this order, to prevent child mortality.  Healthier women translates into healthier mothers, which translates into healthier children.  Although most MENA countries are on track to meet the child and maternal mortality target of Millennium Development Goals, child mortality remains a challenge in Morocco, Egypt and Yemen.  According to 2003 data, these countries’ infant mortality rates stand at 39, 38, and 79 percent, respectively.
  • شعب:
إنهاء وفيات الأطفال يمكن الوقاية منها " من خلال ابتكار هذه التدخلات الخمسة بالترتيب التالي قال ليث Greeslade ، وهو المبعوث الخاص للأمم المتحدة لتمويل الأهداف الإنمائية للألفية الصحية .
هذه هي 1) زيادة فرص الحصول على وسائل منع الحمل ، 2) مراحيض ، 3) الأطعمة المحصنة، 4 ) مضخات الثدي لتسهيل الرضاعة الطبيعية . و 5 ) حاضنات الرضع .
برنامج العمل الصحي العالمي يجب تحديد أولويات التدخلات الصحية الخمس هذه ، في هذا النظام ، لمنع وفيات الأطفال.

النساء أكثر صحة تترجم إلى صحة الأمهات ، وهو ما يترجم إلى صحة الأطفال .
على الرغم من أن معظم دول المنطقة تسير على الطريق الصحيح لتلبية الأطفال و الوفيات النفاسية الهدف من الأهداف الإنمائية للألفية ، لا تزال معدلات وفيات الأطفال تحديا في المغرب ومصر واليمن.
وفقا ل بيانات عام 2003 ، تقف معدلات وفيات الرضع في هذه البلدان في 39 ، 38، و 79 في المئة ، على التوالي .
  • Planet:  “Development = Planet (make planet sustainable) + People (help people reach their true potential)” The statement concluded the hot topic conversation: Climate and our future.  Class tutorial shows energy alternative for .
  • الكوكب:
التنمية = كوكب ( جعل الكوكب المستدام) + الناس (مساعدة الناس على الوصول إلى إمكاناتهم الحقيقية ) " وخلص البيان إلى موضوع المحادثة الساخنة: المناخ و مستقبلنا.
  • #2030NOW Class tutorial shows energy alternative for #climateAction. #egypt #jordan #ypfp @plus_socialgood

    #2030NOW Class tutorial shows energy alternative for #climateAction. #egypt #jordan #ypfp @plus_socialgood

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Why is PITAPOLICY #Happy about the #SocialGood Summit? #2030Now // لماذا يكون ” سعيد” عن القمة الاجتماعية جيد ؟

Happy in English & Arabic ….

On September 21st and 22nd, PITAPOLICY will be live-tweeting the Social Good Summit in Arabic.  PITAPOLICY founder, Mehrunisa Qayyum, is super HAPPY to have been selected by the Young Professionals in Foreign Policy as one of the YPFP blog sites for the 5th Annual Social Good Summit in New York City during UN Week!  Inspirational partners include the UN Foundation, UNDP, Mashable, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Case Foundation, and 92Y.

Speaking of HAPPY, singer of the “Happy” song, Pharrell Williams will be one of several inspirational speakers at the venue, 92nd Street Y near the UN Headquarters.  Here are five other reasons for PITAPOLICY followers and pitaconsumer fans to join in the happy feeling:

  1. Social Good Summit is a two-day conference examining the impact of technology and new media on social good initiatives around the world.
  2. 50+ countries will be participating using one hashtag. Follow the global movement here:
  3. On September 20th, summit organizers will include a country from the MENA region to participate in the Global Check-In.
  4. Nobel Prize laureate, Professor Muhammad Yunus, will elaborate on this year’s theme “Connecting for Good, Connecting for All”.  Yunus founded the Grameen Bank.  Currently he serves as Chairman of Yunus CenterFounder.
  5. Social Good Summit is another opportunity for entrepreneurs to join the discussion on climate change, which the UN is focusing on during UN week.  Climate change negatively impacts the Arab world as water scarcity becomes a bigger stress on agriculture and industry.  Here’s more from the UN Foundation on “What Climate Change Means for Public Health” by Jenni Lee:

 

This week we are highlighting what climate change means for our communities and our world. Today we feature what climate change means for public health.

Recent United Nations reports from leading science experts have made clear that climate change is real, it’s caused by humans, and it’s already having negative consequences.

Next week, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is bringing together leaders from governments, businesses, and non-governmental groups for a Climate Summit to spur action to address the climate challenge.

It’s time to move from climate talk to climate action, and we need your voice. Learn what climate change means for health, and tell your friends, family, leaders, and social networks that you support climate action using the hashtag #climate2014.

– See more at: http://unfoundationblog.org/what-climate-change-means-for-public-health/#sthash.h1AShQdm.dpuf

سعيدة باللغتين العربية والإنجليزية

يوم 21 سبتمبر و 22 ، سوف يكون PITAPOLICY الحية تويتينغ قمة اجتماعية جيدة باللغة العربية.
مؤسس PITAPOLICY ، Mehrunisa قيوم ، هو السوبر سعداء ل تم اختيارها من قبل المهنيين الشباب في السياسة الخارجية باعتبارها واحدة من المواقع بلوق YPFP للقمة الاجتماعية الجيدة السنوي 5 في مدينة نيويورك خلال أسبوع الأمم المتحدة !

ويشمل الشركاء ملهمة مؤسسة الأمم المتحدة ، برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي ، ماشابل ، ومؤسسة بيل وميليندا غيتس، ومؤسسة القضية ، و 92Y .


الحديث عن HAPPY ، المغني من " سعيد " أغنية ، و فاريل وليامز واحدا من العديد من المتحدثين ملهمة في مكان ، 92 شارع Y بالقرب من مقر الأمم المتحدة . هنا خمسة أسباب أخرى ل أتباع PITAPOLICY والمشجعين pitaconsumer للانضمام في الشعور بالسعادة :

قمة اجتماعية جيدة هو المؤتمر الذي يستمر يومين دراسة تأثير التكنولوجيا ووسائل الإعلام الجديدة على المبادرات الجيدة الاجتماعية حول العالم.
سيتم
أكثر من خمسين بلدا
الدول المشاركة باستخدام هاشتاج واحد.
تغير المناخ يؤثر سلبا على العالم العربي و ندرة المياه يصبح الضغط أكبر على الزراعة والصناعة.
متابعة حركة 2030Now# العالمية هنا: http://trib.al/U4eyjW2 يوم 20 سبتمبر ، وسوف تشمل منظمي القمة بلد من منطقة الشرق الأوسط للمشاركة في العالمية فورية لل . الحائز على جائزة نوبل البروفيسور محمد يونس ، و تفاصيل عن موضوع هذا العام " ل توصيل جيد، توصيل للجميع" . يونس مؤسس بنك جرامين . انه يشغل حاليا منصب رئيس يونس CenterFounder . قمة اجتماعية جيدة هو فرصة أخرى لأصحاب المشاريع في الانضمام إلى مناقشة بشأن تغير المناخ ، التي تركز على الأمم المتحدة خلال أسبوع الأمم المتحدة . وهنا أكثر من مؤسسة الأمم المتحدة ع
لى "ما تغير وسائل للصحة العامة " من قبل جيني لي:


هذا الاسبوع نحن إبراز ما يعني تغير المناخ ل مجتمعاتنا وعالمنا . اليوم نحن ميزة ما يعني تغير المناخ على الصحة العامة.

جعلت التقارير الأخيرة للأمم المتحدة من خبراء العلوم الرائدة واضحا أن تغير المناخ هو حقيقي ، وسببه البشر ، وانها لديها بالفعل عواقب سلبية .

الاسبوع المقبل ، بان الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة بان كي مون التي وحدت بين القادة من الحكومات والشركات و الجماعات غير الحكومية ل قمة المناخ لتحفيز العمل على مواجهة التحدي المناخي.

حان الوقت للانتقال من الكلام إلى العمل المناخ المناخ ، ونحتاج صوتك. تعلم ما يعني تغير المناخ على الصحة ، و تخبر الأصدقاء والعائلة و القادة، والشبكات الاجتماعية التي قمت دعم العمل المناخي باستخدام هاشتاج # climate2014

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Are 15 Presidential Candidates Too Many for #Elections? #Tunisie

Whether pitaconsumers think 15 presidential candidates for Tunisia’s 8 million eligible voters is too much or a good amount, we are happy to hear some discussion about Tunisia’s upcoming elections.    On October 26th, Tunisians will elect a new parliament.  Soon after, on November 23rd, Tunisians will hold round 1 of electing their first president since ousting the Zine El Abidine Ben Ali regime in 2010.  Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi served as Acting President.  Since then, Tunisia adopted a new constitution, saw the winning Ennahda Party step down, and witnessed two political assassinations.  If necessary, round 2 will occur on December 28th.  This week, Dr. Noureddine Jebnoun shares his political assessment for Tunisia’s parliamentary and presidential elections.  Dr. Jebnoun is a faculty member at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.

It’s refreshing to hear about political challenges in an election context.  To be honest, we are tired of hearing about ISIS — it’s like the national security community is hitting a midlife crISIS…or experiencing Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from the Al Qaeda experience and the symptoms include outdated flashbacks.

Various efforts to increase voter registration, through SMS and “youth” campaigns, receive external support on the watch of the Independent High Authority for Elections.  The At the same time, we must agree with Dr. Jebnoun that not all is faring so well in Tunisia.  Since PITAPOLICY’s visit in June 2014, the domestic situation in Tunisia leaves a lot of room for Tunisian voters to hold their political parties accountable for –regardless of experience.  In Jebnoun’s article, he points out how tackling unemployment, cronyism, and corruption can be any party’s platform because no solutions have been posited as of late, “Political economy has never been a priority for the Islamist party and its secularist – leftist partners in power.”

Tunisia’s Presidential Bazaar

Source: Article first appeared on Middle East Insight: MEI Insight No. 115 27 August 2014

More than fifteen candidates have already announced their candidacy for the November 2014 presidential election. (Note 1)
However, the final list of potential pretenders to the Carthage presidential palace is still to come. (Note 2) Set within a deeply fragmented and polarized political arena, this election has come to be seen as a kind of horse race where the contenders have focused most of their time and energy on their right to be elected – denied under the fallen dictatorship – and their own image de marque with their peer rivals, rather than on offering realistic political agendas for the country and addressing its monumental socioeconomic challenges. The absence of such an agenda is of paramount significance in light of the lack of any serious debate on the key issues affecting Tunisians. Meanwhile, proxy-biased media outlets run talk shows where candidates and their supporters favor the populist approach of “going negative,” a modus operandi dedicated to personal attacks viciously framed in defamatory and denigrating narratives. (Note 3)
This disenchantment and resentment amongst a population originally yearning for freedom and democracy has been generated by more than three years of uncertainty marked by endless political negotiations, latent violence and poor economic performance. In fact, post-uprising macroeconomic indicators have become worse as economic dislocation has led to poor economic growth incapable of creating enough jobs. The rise in the fiscal deficit and the increase in the public debt have negatively impacted investment promotion and prevented the country’s economy from engendering sustainable growth. Rising unemployment among the youth has reached an all – time high of 40 percent and is even higher in the countryside. (Note 6) Corruption, cronyism and nepotism have marginalized large segments of Tunisian society, chiefly among the … [Click here to continue.]

Who Are These Candidates? Why so many and where did they come from?

Among  these candidates include the following from Note 1.
  • Emna Mansour,  President   of   Democratric   Movement   for   Reform   and  Construction;
  • Abderraouf Ayadi, Secretary  General   of  Wafa Movement;
  • Béji Caïd Essebsi,  President of  Nidaa Tunis;
  • Kalthoum Kannou,  judge and  former President of  the  Tunisian  Association of  Magistrates;
  • Ahmed Néjib Chebbi,   President  of   the   High   Political   Authority   of Al Joumhouri Party;
  • Abderrahim Zouari,   former   Secretary  General   of   the   dissolved -­‐ banned Ben   Ali’s   party the Democratic   Constitutional   Rally   and   candidate   of   the  Destourien  Movement.

Filing nominations for presidential elections started on September 8th, and will close on September 22nd.

Candidates for the 2014 presidential election not backed by at   least   10  members of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA)   must  get 10,000 signatures for  sponsorship by citizen – voters in at least ten electoral  constituencies… Already nearly 40 personalities have publicly announced their intention to run for the highest office, most of whom are independent personalities. However, it is difficult for them to secure an endorsement from10 members of NCA and the only other way open  to them is to seek the10,000 signatures required. ~Noureddine Jebnoun

 

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#PresErdogan: Wins 9 Elections; Allows Media Blackout When ISIS Takes 49 Turkish Hostages

Washington, DC ~ Turkey’s most talked about Prime Minister, Recep T. Erdogan, is now their new president– a switch to election by citizens from selection by parliament.  But does Erdogan still get the right to say he represents the masses?  With increasing public scrutiny on freedom of expression, Turkey’s state of economy will not be the only area that the new Turkish President will be graded on by Turkish citizens.  For example, a week into Erdogan’s presidency, media blackout continues to paint a controlled picture inside Turkey: ISIS has 49 Turkish hostages, including consul general, in Mosul, Iraq.

On September 4th, Kemal Kirisci, Brookings Institute’s Turkey Project Director, asked  Senior Fellow, Omer Taspinar, SETA Foundation’s Research Director, Kadir Ustun, and S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace’s, Robert Wexler: How will Turkey’s move forward with former Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erodgan as Turkey’s new president?  Erodgan served for 12 years before winning 52 percent of the votes.  Erdogan ran against a two-party coalition ,who chose Ekmeleddin Ihasano, and a Kurdish political party candidate, Selahattin Demirtas.  As Wexler argued, “Whether you are a fan or opponent of Pres. Erdogan, he is the most successful electoral candidate in the world, winning 9 elections.”  At the same time, criticizing the status of #Turkey ‘s democracy and freedom of expression “doesn’t translate as nostalgia for the military-led era”, said Taspinar.  (We would chime in that the same applies to the Ataturk era.)  Taspinar noted Turkey’s downgraded scores for freedom of expression and press, which should be treated separately as a mark of success or failure that is distinct from Turkey’s economic success under Erdogan.

Here are the highlights from the panelists’ debate:

Economic Goals

  • Ustun: the opposition in #turkey must figure out a way to appeal to citizens. #PresErdogan has appeal to middle class, oppo has failed.
  • Wexler argues that #PresErdogan should not accept second tier #EU membership.

Turkish Relations

Kirisci followed up on U.S. perceptions of Turkey: Will the US take interest in #Turkey’s democratic performance?

  • Wexler: Yes, however interests will be dwarfed by national security concerns.  Erdogan doesn’t get credit in DC for good actions he has taken, like putting civilians in charge of military.
  • When President Erdogan does things right, we tend to mark it as tactical. But PM Erdogan has done right things more than once.  For example, two years ago, Erdogan warned the U.S. about the Syria crisis and the downside of inaction, such as the refugee and humanitarian crisis…and now the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq & Levant.  (More importantly, if the U.S. can accept and “I told you so!” from President Erdogan, there is a way for the U.S. and Turkey to build a coalition to address Syria and not as a default problem of ISIS.)
  • Wexler: Erdogan got a second chance to show if he can focus on successful leadership, economic management; mitigate his own internal battles.
  • Taspinar: The AKP, Erdogan’s party, squandered an opportunity. “Yes it’s an electoral democracy, but it’s an illiberal one where press freedom declined.”
  • Taspinar concludes: “Turkey’s institutions (legislative powers, media, courts) aren’t working; you don’t see checks and balances.”

Kurdish Question
How can an autocrat provide hope for the Kurdish question?

  • Taspinar: “It’s a huge paradox.  Either Pres. Erdogan Is Machiavelli, who has coalition of Kurds. Or is genuine BUT an Ottoman Sultan granting rights.  (We give high marks for his truthiness observation — truth from the gut.)

 

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Would the REAL Crisis in the Middle East Please Stand Up?

WASHINGTON — President Obama surprised many recently when he diagnosed the crisis gripping Iraq as partly an economic one, noting that Iraqi Sunnis were “detached from the global economy” and thus frustrated in achieving their aspirations.

While Iraq’s chaos has many sources, the president is nevertheless on to something; and it’s not just Iraqi Sunnis, but the entire Middle East that is detached from the global economy.

The region accounts for just over 4 percent of global imports, less than it did in 1983; Germany alone accounts for 6.4 percent. Its economic stagnation is vividly illustrated by a comparison to Asian economies. According to the World Bank, in 1965, Egypt’s per-capita gross domestic product was $406, while China’s was merely $110.

Today (using constant dollars), Egypt’s G.D.P. has increased four-fold to $1,566, whereas China’s has increased thirty-fold to $3,583. Similarly, Iran and South Korea had roughly the same per-capita G.D.P. in 1965; now South Korea’s is $24,000, whereas Iran’s is only $3,000.

The economies of the Middle East are not only detached from the world’s, but from one another. Most exports in North America, Europe and Asia remain within those regions. Two-thirds of exports to Europe are also from Europe. In the Middle East, only 16 percent of exports to the region as a whole are from other Middle Eastern states.

While Western observers focus on political issues in the Middle East, people in the region are themselves preoccupied with economic matters. According to a recent poll, residents of the Gaza Strip overwhelmingly desire calm with Israel and the chance to seek jobs there. In another poll, Iranians listed “expanding employment opportunities” as their top political priority, far higher than “continuing our nuclear enrichment program.”

But while Gazans hope for an end to their blockade, and Iranians for an end to sanctions, neither step would provide a silver bullet. Economic malaise is endemic to the region, even in places not suffering from blockades or sanctions.

This should concern Western policy makers. The distinction between economic and political problems is false. Like anywhere, economics and politics are inextricably linked. And economic progress is the key to easing the chronic instability that threatens American interests in the region.

Among oil importers, bloated public sectors are at the heart of socioeconomic woes. In places like Egypt, where the public sector employs around 30 percent of workers, post-revolution governments in search of quick economic fixes have further increased the public work force and salaries. Generous government subsidies, particularly on fuel, encourage overconsumption and favor inefficient, energy-intensive industries. Together with the large public-sector wage bills, these subsidies strain government finances, resulting in deficits, which increase the cost of credit.

These policies, together with obstacles to doing business, inhibit the sort of private-sector activity that would boost growth and employment. Across the region, unemployment — especially among youth — is in many cases higher than it was at the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, and economic growth is too slow to reverse the trend.

These problems aren’t limited to the oil importers. The International Monetary Fund has warned that oil exporters’ years of massive surpluses are nearing an end, as a result of heavy spending and growing populations. This makes them increasingly vulnerable to a decrease in oil prices, which looks increasingly likely as new sources come online internationally.

These economic problems can be fixed, however. In contrast to the region’s political dilemmas — which often seem intractable — the West is not only able to help, but regional leaders are open to receiving help. Jordan offers an example: Amid the chaos of the Arab uprisings, Amman quietly implemented tough reforms with the assistance of the United States and the I.M.F.

Oil importers need to replace costly fuel subsidies with targeted assistance to the poor and the creation of social safety nets. They also need to ease their dependency on external aid, reduce corruption, and make regulatory changes to encourage private-sector growth. Exporters need to reduce spending and diversify their economies. And both need to shrink their public sectors and modernize their educational systems.

The United States and its allies should not only provide advice in overcoming these challenges but also incentivize regional governments to take it. That means working with regional allies that are seeking to diversify and modernize their economies, and coordinating economic aid and tying it to progress on reform, including the political steps necessary to make reforms successful.

America should also promote greater economic integration by cooperating with wealthy oil producers to invest in the prosperity of their poorer neighbors, and by offering Middle Eastern states better access to Western markets, especially the European Union.

Exhortations for the United States to “do more” overseas are often criticized as veiled calls for the use of military force. But integrating economic statecraft into diplomacy would help broaden America’s international role beyond the security sphere in a way that promotes long-term peace and stability.

It would be naïve to think that economic growth will solve all of the Middle East’s thorny dilemmas; but it would be equally naïve to believe that they can be solved without it.

Michael Singh is the managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior director for Middle East Affairs at the United States National Security Council.

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Why Is #Morocco the Outlier in Gallup #Poll?

Why is Morocco the outlier in Gallup’s poll?  Morocco is more confident about its economic future than ANY other MENA neighbor!  Gallup released a poll last week looking at economic confidence across the Middle East and North Africa in 2013 — what we nicknamed the pita-consuming region.  Gallup results showed that MENA respondents showed declining economic confidence in the MENA region with a score of -33 points for 2013.  MENA’s 2012 respondents scored -17 points in its economic confidence, thereby showing a decline of 16 points in Economic Confidence Index in the Middle East.  (Algeria was not included in the sample–probably due to difficulty in gathering data given its government restrictions.)  Lebanon showed the lowest level of economic confidence with a score of -71 points.  In contrast, Morocco showed a score of 20 points.  As all other MENA countries reflected ‘below zero’ economic confidence, Morocco remained steadfast in its economic outlook–for whatever reason.

Only EU Is Less Confident than MENA Region– Minus GCC Countries

After the European Union (-36 points), MENA (-33 points) showed the least amount of economic confidence. Gallup measures economic confidence as the following:

Gallup calculates the Economic Confidence Index by adding the percentage of people rating current economic conditions (["excellent" + "good"] minus “poor”) to the percentage saying the economy is (“getting better” minus “getting worse”), and then dividing that sum by two. The Economic Confidence Index has a maximum value of +100 and a minimum value of -100. Values above zero indicate a more positive than negative view of the economy, values below zero indicate net-negative views, and zero indicates that positive and negative views are equal.

The greatest decline in economic confidence was in Egypt: scoring -70 points in 2013, a 40 point drop from -30 points in 2012.  What explains the declining economic confidence?  Security discomfort?  Uncertainty about subsidy reform?  Declining FDI, which results from disruptive policing efforts?  Some factors affect certain countries more than others.

Economic Confidence Declined Because of Subsidy Reductions?

MENA is too diverse across its set countries to truly feel surprised about any type of general statement of confidence–especially if you argue that a single indicator of confidence cannot represent the non-homogenous MENA region because oil-producing countries skew the results of economic realities.  It’s important to note: Gallup considered the impact of GCC member nation’s realities and did not include them in the economic confidence index for the region.  Both middle-income (Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon Libya and Egypt) and upper-income countries (Bahrain and Kuwait for example) experience different realities and may point to why they are less confident than last year.  Specifically, middle-income countries, like Tunisia,  have undertaken wide-scale subsidy reductions in contrast to wealthier countries’, which have the luxury of maintaining fuel and bread subsidies without implementing tax regimes.

Tunisia’s planned subsidy reforms and public spending cuts should help reduce the budget deficit by 1.5 billion dinars or $927 million in 2014. Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa

Subsidy culture aside, some feel like certain cultural experiences speak to certain countries and not others.  Or even if you feel that certain countries belong to the region versus others, what does economic confidence really mean if each country is starting off from a richer endowment?  Advanced, industrialized economies, like Israel, are included in the Gallup poll.  But, Israel is the only MENA country that receives economic aid.

True, you could argue that the regional security situation negatively impacted over 6 MENA countries in 2013, which is why economic confidence declined across the board–expect in Morocco.  Syria’s war produced huge spillover effects by producing over 1.5 million refugees for Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq.  But not for Morocco.  Geographically, Morocco is the furthest away from the Syrian conflict (and now the ISIS escalation in Iraq).  So Morocco’s positive economic outlook is not tainted by either the Syrian spillover or the Gaza blockade.

More importantly, if you does want to focus on the overall “declining economic confidence in the Middle East” why the heck is Morocco the outlier in this MENA poll?   Based on PITAPOLICY’s June visit to Morocco, certain positive developments may explain why Moroccans show more economic confidence:

1) Fully operational, newly constructed metro system operating in Rabat.  More mobility, more access to economic outlets.

2) More publicity on King Mohammed IV’s increased support for economic and agricultural assistance to African countries.  Can’t tell you how many times Qayyum turned on Moroccan news to see coverage on Morocco’s Africa’s assistance–counted two stories each night for a week.

3) Optimism that political trajectory of Morocco is more stable than neighboring revolutions in Tunisia, Libya Egypt, and Yemen.

 

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Live-Blogging from DC: To what point does international community accept that there’s a state within a state? #IRAQ – What is Happening?”

August 14th in Washington, DC ~ The New America Foundation asks “Iraq: What Is Happening?” from its office in Washington, DC.  Earlier this week, Iraqi president, Fouad Masum, announced the new Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, who is SUPPOSED to take over from Nouri al-Maliki — Iraq’s Prime Minister since the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. (Since this post, Al-Maliki resigned at 5pm EST.  Al-Abadi now has 26 days to form a government according to the constitution.)

Rightly or wrongly — depending on if one views this as an impeachment or  as a coup that dismisses constitutional processes — Al-Maliki is taking legal action to fight for a third term.  It is no surprise that the UK Foreign Office welcomes Al-Abadi as the new PM — he was educated at Manchester University.

More political drama unfolds since the Obama order airstrikes on August 7th.  Despite the Obama’s administration pledge to keep troops out of combat, the Pentagon confirms US special operations are headed to Mount Sinjar, Iraq.

New America Foundation: Two-and-a-half years after the United States withdrew from Iraq, President Obama has ordered air strikes against Sunni militants in the country without giving any sort of timetable on how long the United States will remain involved.  The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have taken over major cities in the north, Iraqi army officers have abandoned their posts, and people are fleeing the region by the hundreds of thousands. ISIS has also taken over at least four small oil fields and Mosul Dam, the largest dam in the country, which has the capacity to flood cities and farms downstream.  Iraqi Kurds have also taken over parts of the north, fighting back ISIS militants.  Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki clashed with Iraq’s president on Monday after he asked a veteran Shiite politician, Haider al-Abadi, to form a new government on Monday, setting the stage for a political showdown.As the humanitarian crisis worsens and the level of U.S. involvement deepens, we will explore some key questions: What is the trajectory of ISIS? Will Maliki try to stage a coup? What does this mean for a country with some of the largest oil reserves in the world? Is President Obama is doing the right thing? And what is the fate of Kurdistan?

Participants

We will be live-blogging the conversation, which includes comments from the following participants:

Col. Derek Harvey (Ret.): Professor, University of South Florida Former Senior Analyst for Iraq for General David H. Petraeus Denise Natali: Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Author, The Kurdish Quasi-State: Development and Dependency in Post-Gulf War Iraq

Steve Levine: Future Tense Fellow, New America Foundation; Author, The Oil and the Glory, The Pursuit of Empire and Fortune on the Caspian Sea

Moderator: Douglas A. OllivantASU Future of War Senior Fellow, International Security Program, New America Foundation Former NSC Director for Iraq

 

The Moderator, Olivant,  opens with a Sad Joke about Iraq –like Russia–producing more history than GDP.  He emphasizes war between moderates and ‘Jihadists’ prefers emphasizing “Sunni Jihadist” and the sectarian, regional conflict.

Harvey:

  • ISIS is not a terrorist organization, but a terrorist army b/c strong social media and strongholds great strategic military planners

Military Organization

  • ISIS made up of former Mukhabarat and Iraqi army officers
  • Strengths: good leadership and organization
  • Arm and ally w/Peshmurga: training and reforming the Iraqi Forces, augementation of intelligence need combined joint task force

(Although there’s a “democritzation of violence” we disagree w/the construct – democratization of violence

Natali:

  • Kurdish region media coverage hyperfocuse on arming Kurds
  • Pushing back on ISIS in Sinjar area, but Pehsmarge having difficulty in east area where no airtstrikes occurred
  • Concerned about the politicization of aid: why just looking at safeguarding the Yazidis?
  • “We were too busy predicting breakup of Iraq. myth that peshmurga were capable of defending region” Look at Baghdad, PKK, and Iran
  • Iraqi govt was the one providing airport, arming Kurds is undermining terrirotial integrity of Iraq… but done w/approval of Iraqi govt

Economic Side:

  • Operations are suspended in Kurdish region: almost every intl oil company has evacuated, but service companies no longer there
  • Building construction are at standstill; commercial flights are not running unless to Istanbul or Jordan
  • 25% occupancy of hotels

Levin

  • 200K bpd produced, only 120 bpd exported
  • Not focused on “do Kurds get independence?” or discourage Kurds from selling oil
  • ISIS understands centrality of resources: captured in Syria and Iraq, producing by using crews on ground earning $1M a day
  • Reuters reported similar thing of ISIS asserting economic control of wheat.

Here’s the jist of what Levin is saying regarding wheat, which we already noted as 5 provinces in Iraq represent 40% of Iraq’s supply.  ISIS tactics and strategy is reminiscent of when the Taliban captured the heroin trade in Afghanistan.  Given that ISIS operates like a state trying to control resources (oil, wheat, and now water) we see that this is no longer a terrorism issue, but an Iraqi soveriegnty issue.   As Levin pointed out, and we agreed, ISIS is working on control of water and dams.

 

  • Iraq projected ambition 12M bpd now downgraded projection to 5M bpd
  • Now 80% of expats have flown out of Erbil, oil companies aren’t there anymore – their share prices: lost 25% of value, but resurged?
  • Kirkuk key area: Exxon tried to drill, but even if you do drill, it is percieved that ISIS can threaten oil fields or transportation b/c needs to get it to Turkey

Olivant on Baghdad Politics:

  • We have a new nominee for PM, same from same party as Al Maliki (Al Dawah Party not Sadrists) but has a Phd in engineering — a technocrat w/o political study….(hmmm…we said that last week)
  • Kurds are in areas where violence will exist for some time in addition to corruption and ghost soldiers — requires reassesment of US forces in region as assessing Peshmurga and Iraqi forces
  • Kurds have lost their brand b/c they used to be in the safe part of Iraq
  • selling weapons directly to Kurds “above board” are against U.S. law b/c must deal with the state
  • Insurance rates for oil companies operating in Erbil are going to skyrocket

Natali

far left (doug?): challenges the “lost their brand” comment
not a matter of law, but matter of policy

Policy suggestions:

1) Reynolds: Frame correctly and understand threat frame correctly by specifying who the threat is– This is not a terrorism issue.(PITAPOLICY NOTE: But didn’t we already do that by identifying ISIS and their origins??? It makes sense to go after sanctuary areas in Syria, but then it revisits what Olivant warned the US not to do: deal with Syria.  Tactical measures aren’t enough. )

2) Do not reinforce ethnic/sectarian divisions existing now, which the US has done w/aid operation last week
Not in the Kurds interest to give into Barzani’s interest

3) Natali: Be careful not to create a political cushion that doesn’t get Iraqis to stand with their decisions
praises Kirkuk Governor Najmuddin Kareem for not getting sucked into the accusation that Kirkuk getting ‘Arabized’ // now similar accusation with “Kurdization” of territories
have a referendum in any territory is a wise idea

 

Questions:
Why can’t the Arabs should take care of this ISIS crisis?

– Well, unwise to put in a GCC force given the opportunity for sectarian opportunists

Olivant: Assad is now secondary or tertiary priority b/c it’s too complex for near term solution

 Why didn’t we do more? former employee of firm that entered Iraq right after Saddam ouster:directed to Colonel Reynolds

(ummm… b/c ISIS/ISIL didn’t exist when US withdrew from Iraq)
Levine:  If we did airstrikes 10 weeks ago, wouldn’t have had Yazidi sitution, but was held hostage to a domestic situation in Iraq and not enough intelligence for precise targets

Natali

  • Not enough local buy-in within Iraq. Note the Mosul coup: Barzani said “We won’t fight ISIS!” b/c risk of attacking Sunni Arabs civilians

 

Reynolds

  • Downside of recognizing an Islamic State: create a cascade of sectarian warfare that will create a 30 year war from Mediterranean to Asia
  • ISIS has military, ideological, political and financial bureaus that know how to recruit technicians and how to invest.

 

Olivant

  • Administration should get an ‘A’ for crisis management
  • US needs to identify which groups deals may be cut with… (PITAPOLICY NOTE: and hope/pray that ISIS doesn’t capture and torture special forces guys and put it in Youtube)
  • Maybe necessary to have an interim state to hold Iraq together: imagine an Obama and Karl Rove leading US jointly where one department led by Republicans and another led by Democrats: klunky, but unity may trump efficiency

Reynolds

  • Only 5% of revenue stream to support ISIS coming from Gulf

(PITAPOLICY NOTE: GCC states got slapped in the face b/c ISIS predecessors were no longer “good guys gone bad” after they left Syria for Iraq)

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